Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
confidence consumer course makers policy reverse threatens weaker worry
Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.
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Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?
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This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.
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It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
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The overall weakness was so pervasive that it would be silly to completely dismiss the devastating weakness of this report.
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The decline in the length of the average work week ... tells us this leading employment indicator does not foreshadow any immediate end to this general pattern of weakness in the labor market.
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Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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The momentum going into 2006 is clearly healthy. We will be able to withstand weaker growth for the rest of the quarter and almost not miss a heart beat.
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Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year.
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These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.
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By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.
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The housing market is resilient, still going strong, but it would be a mistake to ignore the weakness in existing sales and assume everything is copasetic.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.