Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
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I think there were some significant fears that the CPI could come in above 0.2 percent. Given what we read in the Federal Reserve minutes, there was no room for error on core in the eyes of the market.
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I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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These numbers are suggesting that a future Federal Reserve tightening will be coming to a theater near you quite soon.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
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The much weaker-than-expected rise in payrolls truly confirms the cautious demeanor expressed by various Federal Reserve policy officials.
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I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.
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For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
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This will certainly heat up the debate at the central bank,
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This shows the labor market in not overheated. And you can see that in, yes, not a lot of people are getting raises.
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.