Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
labor market mind question
There's no question in my mind that the labor market is improving.
bit coming deficit growth notion premature short support throws trade wider
The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
blow distance economic economy event fatal market slow within
Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year.
collapse consumer moderation
We will see a moderation ? but not a collapse ? in consumer spending,
anyone argue excluded talking
I think if you would have excluded the hurricanes, you would have been talking as much as 4.7 percent. I don't think anyone would argue 4.6 percent.
economic expansion explosive robust support
It doesn't give support to a robust expansion, ... Expansion is coming, just not the garden-variety explosive economic expansion.
above fed payroll puts
I think if you get a payroll above 300, it will probably spook the market. It puts the Fed back into play.
anxious core draw fed line meeting parties rise shows statement willing
I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.
ability begins earliest economy effects energy expansion gain higher input pass passed prices quite soon stage
While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.
forces positive stimulate
With all that as a backdrop, there are some real positive forces to stimulate growth.
august fed interest pause raise rate
It could raise expectations of a pause (in Fed interest rate hikes) after the August meeting,
central falling fear lower markets rates sending signal step
I think this is an important first step for the central bank. They didn't want to lower rates too aggressively for fear of sending a signal to the markets that they thought things were completely falling apart.
adjust employment fairly numbers strong
We know those numbers were contaminated because of the hurricanes. After you adjust for the hurricanes, you come away with a fairly strong employment outlook.
amount companies earnings economic economy exaggerate growing high multiple pressure problem
The problem was that we had earnings growing at a high multiple of economic activity, and that wasn't right. There was a considerable amount of pressure for companies to exaggerate economic activity, but the economy was doing just fine.