Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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This shows the labor market in not overheated. And you can see that in, yes, not a lot of people are getting raises.
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I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
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I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
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Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
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Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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This clearly shows that relying on the household survey's employment measure as a barometer of labor market conditions is not only risky, but also an incorrect assumption,
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The jump in payrolls this month shows that although the economy clearly went through a wider-than-expected soft patch, it does not appear as though the shortfall in growth was permanent,
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This will certainly heat up the debate at the central bank,
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.
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When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
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We will eventually see the negative impact of rising rates -- we can't dodge that bullet -- but doesn't usually happen at the beginning of the cycle. I'm not sure we will continue to see the market beating expectations by these margins, but I don't see the market collapsing in the next month or so.
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We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.