Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
balance discourage economy fed numbers retail risk sales telling thinking toward
These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.
appear clearly conditions fed hikes investors justify labor less makers market policy pressures rate rather report spoil wage
This is clearly a non-threatening report for investors and policy makers alike. Labor market conditions appear to be tepid enough to justify less rather than more Fed rate hikes while wage pressures did not spoil the party.
builders canary clue coal market move price sales
The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
It's not all that encouraging for the Fed.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.
basically coming data fears growth soft
The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
argue borrowing capacity consumer excess higher income ratio side
The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,
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The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
case
If I was to guess, it was probably a case of him being shrewd.
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I still believe, and I believe this quite strongly, that the manufacturing sector will, in fact, recover. This is only one month.
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It now looks as though the economy is continuing to gravitate towards a more gradual pace of economic growth.
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It lets the Fed feel more comfortable of raising only at a measured, and not an accelerated, pace,
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It's difficult to foresee a growth rate where we will find 320,000 jobs