Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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This report is actually quite favorable for financial markets since we see very little inflation pressure while simultaneously seeing job creation inching up,
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It seems as though the inflation report provided a few component surprises but no overall surprises as apparel prices continued to drop despite the expectation that they would stabilize or rise slightly.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The CPI report was very tame. It sort of reflects the comments by Alan Greenspan that even though monetary policy is way too expansive right now, inflation is sufficiently a non-event, a non-problem, so the Fed obviously can wait at this point,
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The CPI report continues to be encouraging. These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
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The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
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I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
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keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.
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I think they feel the inflation risks are inching higher, but I don't think they're inching so much higher to suggest we have a serious problem at hand,
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If we see strong average hourly earnings, that would be bad for stocks and bonds because it puts the inflation bogey-man on the front burner.
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The lackluster change validates the Fed's view that inflation is not likely to be a major overall issue in 2004. Although this bodes well for policy, it is not a positive for corporate pricing power.