Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
arm concerns consumers direction excited gets holding notion otherwise provides seen shot
This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.
chairman coffin cut greenspan move nail notion numbers percentage regular wish
I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
confidence confirm consumer continuing investor labor market notion numbers sentiment weak
These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
bit coming deficit growth notion premature short support throws trade wider
The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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Certainly, we see some encouragement. We see an economy that's still weak... but not falling off the cliff. The notion that we're not going to have a recession is confirmed by these numbers.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
battery conclusion despite effects energy exclude higher job market prices recent
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
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We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
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We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.