Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
economic fallen far jobs million prior short today typical
We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
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When the economy is creating 200,000 new jobs a month, we can tolerate $65 to $70 a barrel oil. It masks the impact on consumer confidence.
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We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.
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It's tempting to say these are terrible jobs, but the service sector has more wage pricing power than the manufacturing sector. If you're getting a pay increase from your boss today, it's probably not in manufacturing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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It's difficult to foresee a growth rate where we will find 320,000 jobs
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We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
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I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.
jobs last moment months quarter saw similar third three
For the moment the third quarter is probably going to be similar to what we saw the last three months -- probably between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs every month,
affected jobs loss
The GDP doesn't take into consideration loss of wealth, ... It's affected by jobs and productivity.
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These jobs are not lost forever. When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.
account billion coming created easily federal insurance jobs lost orleans pumped recovery remember
These jobs are not lost forever, ... When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.