Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Even though every investor out there is saying labor costs are picking up, companies have a way to be flexible. In theory, when the economy is doing well, profits do just fine even if labor costs increase.
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Benefit costs went up because of medical care costs, ... not firms trying to wow employees. They're not wowing employees. Look at the layoff data.
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Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down.
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The only issue that is troubling is they feel some of the costs from energy are being passed on.
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We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
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About 70 percent of the average cost of producing a product is wages,
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It could be the weather. Distribution costs increase with the cost of energy. Fertilizer goes up when energy goes up. There are various reasons for the surge.
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Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
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Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
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The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.