Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Benefit costs went up because of medical care costs, ... not firms trying to wow employees. They're not wowing employees. Look at the layoff data.
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Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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The terrible, devastating effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, when we see those things on TV, we know we don't feel as good about our country or even about ourselves.
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As the natural displacement from other consumption goods toward energy goods occurs with rises in energy prices, it is easy to conclude that our natural wealth and standard of living will inevitably decline.
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As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
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As the economy gains traction, we'll have demand increasing. And if we have supply contracting, it's a deadly mix. We will end up stunting any potential recovery.
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Corporate earnings growth is slowing. Earnings might be growing at 9 to 10 percent, and that's still impressive. But they're going in the wrong direction.
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Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.
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Continuing claims numbers are very closely tied to unemployment, and they are skyrocketing.
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Victor didn't have to struggle as hard, so he's not the type who would take a big risk,
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There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
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There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,
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There's no question the recovery is taking longer than people thought. People thought the economy would pick up very quickly and that we would have a typical garden variety economic recovery. That's not the case, but the good news is it is a recovery. You can't ask for more than that.
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There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.