Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.
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I think this is an important first step for the central bank. They didn't want to lower rates too aggressively for fear of sending a signal to the markets that they thought things were completely falling apart.
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Usually the devil is in the details. With this report, the greatest fear is that details of true labor market conditions will be found over the next couple of months instead of in this report.
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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This report should soothe the fears of monetary policy-makers who are trying to adjust policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
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This report kind of confirms the market's fears that the economy is limping around on just one foot. At same time, I don't think this report is telling us we're moving toward a recession.
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Although we should get a boost from the reduction in tax withholding along with tax rebates to lower-income taxpayers, the fear is that the persistence of poor labor-market conditions and continuing geopolitical risk may end up tempering economic growth conditions during the third quarter.
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This confirms fears that the economy was growing slowly, but it doesn't absolutely mean we are headed for a double-dip recession.
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I think there were some significant fears that the CPI could come in above 0.2 percent. Given what we read in the Federal Reserve minutes, there was no room for error on core in the eyes of the market.
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Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
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That's a great number that basically calms a lot of the fears out there.
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The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.