Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.
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This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.
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The CPI report continues to be encouraging. These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
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The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
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I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
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I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.
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I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
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I think the numbers minimize the probability of any action this year.
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Those are the numbers that confirmed in their minds that we were in recession.
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We know those numbers were contaminated because of the hurricanes. After you adjust for the hurricanes, you come away with a fairly strong employment outlook.
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We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.