Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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These numbers give the Fed license to cut rates as much as necessary.
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The Fed is likely to continue to raise rates for much of the year 2005.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,
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You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it.
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More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
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Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.
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Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
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Now, with the economic recovery appearing to be somewhat in place and the central bank not lowering rates, we see people trying to get in at the gates before rates start to rise.
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What investors should realize is that the hostesses have been recruited to start removing the punch bowls from all Fed reception rooms and will soon be out full in force and ready to continue raising short-term rates well into 2003.
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That report certainly reveals the recession is not over. The gains we had in September are not sustainable and illustrate why the central bank has to continue to lower rates. At this juncture, the easing of rates basically is serving as a consumer confidence booster.
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Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.