Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
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We can't ignore the trend -- jobless claims have been coming down. We're at least close to turning the corner on the labor market front.
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Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.
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We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.
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This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
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These numbers are suggesting that a future Federal Reserve tightening will be coming to a theater near you quite soon.
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The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
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These jobs are not lost forever. When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.
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These jobs are not lost forever, ... When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.