Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
data gain hard homes looks month percent purchases reported reveal
When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
beating beginning bullet collapsing continue dodge eventually happen impact market month negative next rates rising sure
We will eventually see the negative impact of rising rates -- we can't dodge that bullet -- but doesn't usually happen at the beginning of the cycle. I'm not sure we will continue to see the market beating expectations by these margins, but I don't see the market collapsing in the next month or so.
bit economic fact gains indicative magnitude month though
Even though the gains this month are in fact indicative of a sustainable economic expansion, the magnitude of the gain was a bit exaggerated.
certainly market month worried
One month doesn't make a story. But it's certainly very encouraging, especially with the market worried about inflation.
claims eating economists fairly humble initial month pie realize relationship stable weekend weekly
Many economists will end up eating humble pie this weekend because, while the relationship between the weekly initial unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls is fairly robust, we should also realize that it is not always a stable relationship from month to month.
arising gains loss month possible reflective sector service sure temporary trend truly wait
We may want to wait for another month or so to be sure that such gains were truly reflective of a upward trend and not just a possible distortion arising from the temporary 'hurricane-related' loss of many lower-paying service sector jobs,
conditions couple details devil fear found greatest instead labor market months next true
Usually the devil is in the details. With this report, the greatest fear is that details of true labor market conditions will be found over the next couple of months instead of in this report.
average best data distorting hurricane jobs month numbers quite wider
The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
continuity fed few final greenspan hard months throw win worked
Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.
bigger decide downward government hit huge hurricane itself job last losses month revision trip whether
There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.
allow change connecting data environment favorable gives improving labor market months picture rapidly sea seen start
The two months of favorable data allow us to start connecting the dots. It gives us a picture of a rapidly improving labor market. I think we can categorically say we have seen a sea change in labor market environment at this time.
activity bit economic euphoric given january loss momentum month reflects underlying
It reflects some loss of momentum from January. Activity in January was a bit too euphoric given the underlying economic fundamentals. This month is more realistic.
although employment evidence gradual moderate months provides recovery report resembling stronger support
Although today's employment report provides little evidence of anything resembling a double-dip recovery, it does provide stronger support for the onset of a gradual to a moderate recovery in the months ahead.
cut economy evidence expect far growth headed information justify months slower
It's unreasonable to expect that the information we have so far could justify another cut right now. We need to see more evidence the economy is headed for much slower growth in the months ahead.