Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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This report was very encouraging. It gives us stronger employment growth than the market was expecting while none of negative side effects of economic growth are present, such as higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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This report supports Greenspan's rosy economic view that the economy is likely to continue to grow unabated this quarter thereby justifying continued increases in short-term rates.
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This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.
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What it tells us is that we may see a bit of an easing off of economic growth or momentum. But even though the trajectory of growth may, in fact, ease a bit in 2006, I think the expansion remains intact.
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Even though the gains this month are in fact indicative of a sustainable economic expansion, the magnitude of the gain was a bit exaggerated.
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When the economy is booming and you want to hire new workers, you have to attract them with money. Today, all you have to offer is a job.
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Exports increased by such a small amount, it's not enough to tell me the inventory problem is going to go away. We need world economic growth to start picking up.
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The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
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Now, with the economic recovery appearing to be somewhat in place and the central bank not lowering rates, we see people trying to get in at the gates before rates start to rise.
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It doesn't give support to a robust expansion, ... Expansion is coming, just not the garden-variety explosive economic expansion.
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Recent trends in this index strongly suggest that the largely anticipated path towards economic recovery has in all likelihood already begun,
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
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I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.