Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.
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This rules out any Fed action until November -- or perhaps until next year.
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Even though people thought this was a great opportunity to take the word 'measured' off the table, he didn't do that, ... It suggested that he was not at this point prepared to endorse the Fisher hypothesis. I think he's trying to make sure the Fed doesn't box itself in.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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Moving forward, the Fed will be focused on what they can do to get us out of recession.
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More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
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Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside.
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New Fed chairmen like to come out of the gate looking hawkish as they try to formulate their credibility. Then, they go back to looking more dovish.
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Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
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The CPI report was very tame. It sort of reflects the comments by Alan Greenspan that even though monetary policy is way too expansive right now, inflation is sufficiently a non-event, a non-problem, so the Fed obviously can wait at this point,
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I think if you get a payroll above 300, it will probably spook the market. It puts the Fed back into play.
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I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.