Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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Even though people thought this was a great opportunity to take the word 'measured' off the table, he didn't do that, ... It suggested that he was not at this point prepared to endorse the Fisher hypothesis. I think he's trying to make sure the Fed doesn't box itself in.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.
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I think if you get a payroll above 300, it will probably spook the market. It puts the Fed back into play.
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I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.
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It could raise expectations of a pause (in Fed interest rate hikes) after the August meeting,
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Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.
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Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,
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Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
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Moving forward, the Fed will be focused on what they can do to get us out of recession.
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More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.