Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
bad coming creating employment few news percent
We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
creation damage downtown estimates follow good indicate job lots means next percent plenty rebuilding work
Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation which is good for the economy.
clear consumers given mostly net oil percent prices producers wealth
Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
data gain hard homes looks month percent purchases reported reveal
When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
coming consumer fourth growth percent rest spending
We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.
data future growth percent possibly prospects quarter third
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table,
growth line necessary normally percent produce
We're not going to get the 1.5 percent productivity growth necessary to produce all those jobs. Such a fall-off would be out of line with what normally happens.
energy less percent produce
We produce less than 50 percent of all the energy that we consume.
average cost percent producing product
About 70 percent of the average cost of producing a product is wages,
chairman coffin cut greenspan move nail notion numbers percentage regular wish
I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
decline due economic economy economy-and-economics growth impact oil percent realistic regional
I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,
alive economic growth happen imagine numbers observed percent recent remains rise sluggish towards trend underlying
These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.