Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
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It's unreasonable to expect that the information we have so far could justify another cut right now. We need to see more evidence the economy is headed for much slower growth in the months ahead.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.
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Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
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He's saying so far there is sufficient flexibility that we can tolerate a higher deficit than we could 10 years ago. He didn't say ignore it.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.