Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
aggressive approach bit cold economy grow market maybe quickly rate realize stock worried
The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
almost bad economy energy inflation lose news offers outlook prices rise
Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.
became danger dichotomy disconnect economy greatest huge positive sounds
There's a danger in being too positive, of there being a huge disconnect between how positive a policy-maker sounds and what the economy is doing. That was probably one of O'Neill's greatest shortfalls -- the dichotomy became too wide.
attempt businesses consumer economic economy forces gave resilient
The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
companies costs economy fine investor labor picking profits saying though
Even though every investor out there is saying labor costs are picking up, companies have a way to be flexible. In theory, when the economy is doing well, profits do just fine even if labor costs increase.
deadly demand economy gains potential supply
As the economy gains traction, we'll have demand increasing. And if we have supply contracting, it's a deadly mix. We will end up stunting any potential recovery.
ask economic economy garden good longer news people pick question quickly recovery taking typical variety
There's no question the recovery is taking longer than people thought. People thought the economy would pick up very quickly and that we would have a typical garden variety economic recovery. That's not the case, but the good news is it is a recovery. You can't ask for more than that.
blow distance economic economy event fatal market slow within
Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year.
ability begins earliest economy effects energy expansion gain higher input pass passed prices quite soon stage
While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.
amount companies earnings economic economy exaggerate growing high multiple pressure problem
The problem was that we had earnings growing at a high multiple of economic activity, and that wasn't right. There was a considerable amount of pressure for companies to exaggerate economic activity, but the economy was doing just fine.
economy energy head higher hit interest prices rate seen
But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
blow consumer cushion economy energy feared great helps higher hit lower means prices
Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
beginning economy gradually increase instead justify market recovering rising sharp since stock
Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline. Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week.