Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
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Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
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I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.
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This is a report that represents judgment day for the Federal Reserve,
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The much weaker-than-expected rise in payrolls truly confirms the cautious demeanor expressed by various Federal Reserve policy officials.
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I think there were some significant fears that the CPI could come in above 0.2 percent. Given what we read in the Federal Reserve minutes, there was no room for error on core in the eyes of the market.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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These numbers are suggesting that a future Federal Reserve tightening will be coming to a theater near you quite soon.
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For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
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I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.
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The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
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These jobs are not lost forever. When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.
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These jobs are not lost forever, ... When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.