Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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We see the slowdown crystal clear in the MBA purchase index, and it's starting to show up in monthly sales data. The one thing that was supporting the market, low mortgage rates, is being taken away.
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Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it.
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We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.
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If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.
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The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
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These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.