Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
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Today, information disperses so fast that we're reacting in nanoseconds to the news,
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There's a very good likelihood we'll see the sector come back as rebuilding takes place and the economy starts to react to the huge stimulus in the pipeline.
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The initial knee jerk reaction was a powerful rally in the morning. As cooler heads prevail, it's clear it's still a positive for equities, but the question is whether it is strongly positive or mildly positive.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.