Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
arm concerns consumers direction excited gets holding notion otherwise provides seen shot
This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.
cannot capital carry consumers economy far hope knows provides recovery report spending
Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
although employment evidence gradual moderate months provides recovery report resembling stronger support
Although today's employment report provides little evidence of anything resembling a double-dip recovery, it does provide stronger support for the onset of a gradual to a moderate recovery in the months ahead.
ammunition arguing hawks leverage provides takes
It provides more ammunition for the doves arguing for more moderation, and takes leverage away from the hawks arguing for (a bigger, half-percentage point) hike.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
battery conclusion despite effects energy exclude higher job market prices recent
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
basically case jobs million missing stage
We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
core cost early energy increases jump limited longer mature pass power pricing rest saw seeing today whenever
We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
assured continue fed higher markets push rates remain short term
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
far makers policy remain
We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.
early expect fed historic near pick rate results savings seen starting though work
We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.