Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.
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Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us.
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I think this is an important first step for the central bank. They didn't want to lower rates too aggressively for fear of sending a signal to the markets that they thought things were completely falling apart.
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There is a lot of pain, and if anything these statistics are understating the pain, ... At the same time the economy is showing some potential signs of improvement, you're not finding a lot of firms offering jobs.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
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This is a sign that the housing market is not exempt from the laws of gravity,
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This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.
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This action really reveals the Fed's excitement with the emerging signs of economic growth we're seeing.
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Given the signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, that won't bring the economy to its knees, but it will ensure that this will be a moderate rather than robust recovery.
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In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.