Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
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When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,
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With a fall in the yearly rise in average hourly earnings, both investors and policy-makers can avoid pushing the panic button for a little while longer. In other words, while a (May interest rate hike) remains all but assured, this report did little to nail further tightening beyond this stage.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The decline in the length of the average work week ... tells us this leading employment indicator does not foreshadow any immediate end to this general pattern of weakness in the labor market.
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Although the BLS failed to provide an estimate of what the hurricane did to this report, my research does show that in nine out of the last 10 largest hurricanes, payrolls softened by an average of 120,000,
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About 70 percent of the average cost of producing a product is wages,
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The pace of average hourly earnings continues to rise at just a tepid pace leading me to believe that this overall report is a very monetary policy-friendly report.
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If we see strong average hourly earnings, that would be bad for stocks and bonds because it puts the inflation bogey-man on the front burner.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.