Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
certainly clear feeling growth pressure question texas weak
Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?
believe current labor market report safe strength true
I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.
economy energy head higher hit interest prices rate seen
But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
average based bit conclude consumer credit difficult
Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
borders business close less overall pay pressure secret workers
If we close the borders and have less undocumented workers, it would put some upward pressure on overall wages. It's no secret business will have to pay workers more money.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
report running tells
Nothing in this report tells things are running out of control.
assume chinese five generate immediate incorrect landing people seeing soft trying watching work year
People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will.
costs eventually labor makers policy
Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down.
continue dollar further reduction ship suspicion turning until value
My suspicion is the value of the dollar has to continue to weaken. Until we see further reduction in the value of the dollar, we won't be turning the ship around.
door leaving suspicion
My suspicion is that they are really leaving the door open, at least a crack, to an inter-meeting move.
catching dollar lowering prognosis relatively remain remains starts strong suspicion
My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do, ... The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.
capital next year
Next year it may be tepid with a capital T.
bit excited number numbers price
On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.