Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
chip extent fact housing market nature negatively pillars somewhat strength
One of the pillars of strength of the housing market is the fact of the tax-advantaged nature of the asset. To the extent that you chip away at that, you would see housing somewhat negatively impacted.
blow consumer cushion economy energy feared great helps higher hit lower means prices
Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
behind creeping federal general housing increase last market mortgage rates reserve seen several tone year
Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
beginning economy gradually increase instead justify market recovering rising sharp since stock
Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline. Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week.
fed focused moving
Moving forward, the Fed will be focused on what they can do to get us out of recession.
certainly market month worried
One month doesn't make a story. But it's certainly very encouraging, especially with the market worried about inflation.
cyclical difficult factors increase means power pressure pricing push reduce
More globalization means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not to reduce it. No pricing power means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not less, ... There's so much pressure to push it higher, it will be difficult for cyclical factors to push it lower.
cuts fed financial likely markets quickly raising rate rates start
More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
competition entering labor less leverage means people
More people are entering the labor force, so there is more competition. More competition means there's less leverage for employees.
sticking toes
More and more firms are sticking their toes in the water. The recovery's begun, but it will be fragile.
bit housing mortgage precisely rates start turn
Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.
average change dominated earnings gain length message small
When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,
both fiscal help monetary past period seen stimulus time
What's different this time is that there is a lot more stimulus now than any time in the past 50 or 60 years. I've never seen a period with so much help from both the fiscal and monetary side.
companies competition fairly giving global passing preventing protection slowing though
What is giving us protection is all the global competition that we have. That is preventing companies from passing on most of the costs. Even though productivity has been slowing down, it's still fairly significant.