Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
economic largely likelihood path recent recovery strongly suggest towards trends
Recent trends in this index strongly suggest that the largely anticipated path towards economic recovery has in all likelihood already begun,
boom demise greatly housing recent
Recent speculation about the demise of the housing boom has been greatly exaggerated.
economic equity expansion home housing left market picking prices reason rising sale starts
Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
consumers costs energy higher outlets shown studies switch tend
Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
april checks clear closer people start tend
I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
beginning certainly forecast million patch soft stands year
I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
chain discount factor happening issue retail store
I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
auto despite disappear fact fell happen incentives likely limited question raises sales
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
bounce clearly december fed hike hurricane puts rate report shows
I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
best economic effect expansion higher possible pressure side sustained worlds
I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.
apply employment gravity laws monetary report shows
I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
central falling fear lower markets rates sending signal step
I think this is an important first step for the central bank. They didn't want to lower rates too aggressively for fear of sending a signal to the markets that they thought things were completely falling apart.
headed
I think we're headed in the right direction.
higher inflation problem risks serious suggest
I think they feel the inflation risks are inching higher, but I don't think they're inching so much higher to suggest we have a serious problem at hand,