Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
data future growth percent possibly prospects quarter third
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table,
along although boost conditions continuing economic fear growth income poor reduction risk tax third
Although we should get a boost from the reduction in tax withholding along with tax rebates to lower-income taxpayers, the fear is that the persistence of poor labor-market conditions and continuing geopolitical risk may end up tempering economic growth conditions during the third quarter.
jobs last moment months quarter saw similar third three
For the moment the third quarter is probably going to be similar to what we saw the last three months -- probably between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs every month,
circumstance early fed lows move moving prepared rates require seen since
What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
bad coming creating employment few news percent
We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
boost current economic energy low overall positive prices results serve suggest
These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
aggressive approach bit cold economy grow market maybe quickly rate realize stock worried
The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
continued despite fed greenspan improvement inclined labor latest market might move neutral remain risks small suggest testimony towards
The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
energy number prices prospects rates rising taking toll
The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
lower prepared sign tells
I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.
comforting component greater headline strength
It would have been a lot more comforting to see greater strength in the ex-auto component than in the headline figure.
deflation risk
The risk of deflation has increased. Is it a significant risk? Probably not.
ahead fear gain labor markets monetary policy rate release report rise robust sting takes
The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.