Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
bit coming deficit growth notion premature short support throws trade wider
The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
economic fallen far jobs million prior short today typical
We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
decade earnings economic following looks mirror moderate poised recovery shallow short
The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
assured continue fed higher markets push rates remain short term
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
economic financial flows growth longer short situation
In the short run, it's a no-win situation for the administration. But longer term, it's a win-win situation because you keep financial flows going, and economic growth will become a lot firmer.
circumstance early fed lows move moving prepared rates require seen since
What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
bad coming creating employment few news percent
We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
boost current economic energy low overall positive prices results serve suggest
These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
aggressive approach bit cold economy grow market maybe quickly rate realize stock worried
The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
continued despite fed greenspan improvement inclined labor latest market might move neutral remain risks small suggest testimony towards
The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
energy number prices prospects rates rising taking toll
The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
lower prepared sign tells
I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.
comforting component greater headline strength
It would have been a lot more comforting to see greater strength in the ex-auto component than in the headline figure.