Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
alive economic growth happen imagine numbers observed percent recent remains rise sluggish towards trend underlying
These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.
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What it tells us is that we may see a bit of an easing off of economic growth or momentum. But even though the trajectory of growth may, in fact, ease a bit in 2006, I think the expansion remains intact.
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Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.
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I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
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My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do, ... The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.
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The primary catalyst in the market remains energy, it continues to rule the day. But then we saw that energy prices started to go up, and that took some of the luster off the gains.
agreement although bit certainly early mode outcome recession remains rest sector universal
If the manufacturing sector remains mired in a recession mode for too long, it may be signaling the same for the rest of the economy. Although it may be a bit too early to make that assessment, there should be universal agreement that the ISM outcome certainly does not bode well for the rest of the economy.
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With a fall in the yearly rise in average hourly earnings, both investors and policy-makers can avoid pushing the panic button for a little while longer. In other words, while a (May interest rate hike) remains all but assured, this report did little to nail further tightening beyond this stage.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.