Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
ask economic economy garden good longer news people pick question quickly recovery taking typical variety
There's no question the recovery is taking longer than people thought. People thought the economy would pick up very quickly and that we would have a typical garden variety economic recovery. That's not the case, but the good news is it is a recovery. You can't ask for more than that.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
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Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
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These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.
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These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging,