Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
continue continued economic economy grow increases justifying likely quarter report supports thereby view
This report supports Greenspan's rosy economic view that the economy is likely to continue to grow unabated this quarter thereby justifying continued increases in short-term rates.
quarter
It's a wake-up call. One quarter does not make a trend, but we have to be more on our guard.
afford bigger economy growth healthy hit momentum quarter second tells underlying
It's a healthy development. It tells us the underlying momentum of the economy was stronger, so we can afford to take a bigger hit in the second quarter and still have respectable growth for the year.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
evidence next quarter recession recovery sector seeing solid start
We'll start seeing solid and significant evidence of recovery in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter next year. It was the first to go into recession and will be the first to come out.
challenges confidence consumer continue economy labor market numbers pose quarter serious soft
We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
data future growth percent possibly prospects quarter third
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table,
appear bottom consumers emerging line patch quarter soft
The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,
almost clearly growth heart miss momentum quarter rest weaker
The momentum going into 2006 is clearly healthy. We will be able to withstand weaker growth for the rest of the quarter and almost not miss a heart beat.
consumer dissecting expected fairly inventory markets nervous next prospects quarter risk slower spending stronger
I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.
jobs last moment months quarter saw similar third three
For the moment the third quarter is probably going to be similar to what we saw the last three months -- probably between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs every month,
couple itself quarters stimulus work
All this stimulus is going to work, ... just not overnight. It's probably going to take a couple of quarters to work itself out.
circumstance early fed lows move moving prepared rates require seen since
What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.