Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
federal pressures react reserve starting
Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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This is clearly a non-threatening report for investors and policy makers alike. Labor market conditions appear to be tepid enough to justify less rather than more Fed rate hikes while wage pressures did not spoil the party.
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This confidence is encouraging and takes some of the pressure off the terrible number we saw with retail sales.
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If we close the borders and have less undocumented workers, it would put some upward pressure on overall wages. It's no secret business will have to pay workers more money.
cyclical difficult factors increase means power pressure pricing push reduce
More globalization means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not to reduce it. No pricing power means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not less, ... There's so much pressure to push it higher, it will be difficult for cyclical factors to push it lower.
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The report is certainly encouraging. It says there's no urgency to panic about inflation. But that's not the same as saying there's justification for a pause. This is all pre-Katrina. There's enough pipeline pressures out there to say that a pause is not a slam dunk.
consumer demand downward expect faster growing higher hopeful labor linger peak percent pressure sort turn
If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.
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This report was very encouraging. It gives us stronger employment growth than the market was expecting while none of negative side effects of economic growth are present, such as higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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This report is actually quite favorable for financial markets since we see very little inflation pressure while simultaneously seeing job creation inching up,
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The problem was that we had earnings growing at a high multiple of economic activity, and that wasn't right. There was a considerable amount of pressure for companies to exaggerate economic activity, but the economy was doing just fine.
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I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.