Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
along core engine federal hike humming interest june keeps looks rate reserve
The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
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It now looks as though the economy is continuing to gravitate towards a more gradual pace of economic growth.
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The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
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When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
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I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.
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The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.