Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
coming control core declining energy everybody fed figure gradual knows line move number pace plan prices rate tells
Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.
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Wages have stagnated over the past couple of years; employers have no incentive to change wages. Eventually we will see incentive packages moving more closely in line with growth in the economy, but it's not going to happen soon.
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We're not going to get the 1.5 percent productivity growth necessary to produce all those jobs. Such a fall-off would be out of line with what normally happens.
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The bottom line is, the labor market is going to continue to show further deterioration, not because it's getting worse, but because of mechanics. As the unemployment rate gets higher, the consumer is going to consider that.
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The bottom line is that Wall Street will have to shave off some of its overly exuberant fourth-quarter real GDP estimates,
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The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,
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keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.
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He can't sound bullish and he can't sound bearish, ... He has walk a very fine line to justify maintaining this measured status quo.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.