Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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What's different this time is that there is a lot more stimulus now than any time in the past 50 or 60 years. I've never seen a period with so much help from both the fiscal and monetary side.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.
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It would have been a lot more comforting to see greater strength in the ex-auto component than in the headline figure.
deflation risk
The risk of deflation has increased. Is it a significant risk? Probably not.
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The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.