Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
attempt businesses consumer economic economy forces gave resilient
The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
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With all that as a backdrop, there are some real positive forces to stimulate growth.
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The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.
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Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of the economic slowdown with patriotism, ... As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.
challenge conditions consumers continue economic fighting forces juncture
Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of economic slowdown with patriotism. As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.
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What investors should realize is that the hostesses have been recruited to start removing the punch bowls from all Fed reception rooms and will soon be out full in force and ready to continue raising short-term rates well into 2003.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.