Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
average becoming earnings fed figures price start tells truly vigilant
The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
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These jobless claims figures strongly suggest that any discussion of a runaway economic recovery have been greatly exaggerated, ... Instead, what we see here is a recovery that continues to face significant headwinds emanating from the employment front.
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These figures strongly suggest that the labor market recovery train is still not even at the train station as of yet.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.
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It would have been a lot more comforting to see greater strength in the ex-auto component than in the headline figure.
deflation risk
The risk of deflation has increased. Is it a significant risk? Probably not.