Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
economic expansion explosive robust support
It doesn't give support to a robust expansion, ... Expansion is coming, just not the garden-variety explosive economic expansion.
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While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.
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What it tells us is that we may see a bit of an easing off of economic growth or momentum. But even though the trajectory of growth may, in fact, ease a bit in 2006, I think the expansion remains intact.
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The orders component should jump out and catch your eye. We're still in expansion mode, and recovery is in no jeopardy of derailing, but it's not racing away from us.
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The orders component should jump out and catch your eye, ... We're still in expansion mode, and recovery is in no jeopardy of derailing, but it's not racing away from us.
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While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
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Now companies are convinced that the expansion is getting stronger and is sustainable and they are increasing hiring to meet expected demand.
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I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.