Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
cannot capital carry consumers economy far hope knows provides recovery report spending
Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
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These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.
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The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,
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Betting against the U.S. consumer is always a losing bet.
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This terrible tragedy is certain to severely dampen consumer confidence and hence have the possibility of shutting down the consumer.
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As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
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The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
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There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
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There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
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The bottom line is, the labor market is going to continue to show further deterioration, not because it's getting worse, but because of mechanics. As the unemployment rate gets higher, the consumer is going to consider that.
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The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,
analysis consumer likely pace slow spending
Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,