Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
attempt businesses consumer economic economy forces gave resilient
The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
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Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,
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Betting against the U.S. consumer is always a losing bet.
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As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
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There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
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There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
collapse consumer moderation
We will see a moderation ? but not a collapse ? in consumer spending,
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Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.
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Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.
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Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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This terrible tragedy is certain to severely dampen consumer confidence and hence have the possibility of shutting down the consumer.
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When the economy is creating 200,000 new jobs a month, we can tolerate $65 to $70 a barrel oil. It masks the impact on consumer confidence.