Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
although change corporate inflation issue likely major overall positive pricing view
The lackluster change validates the Fed's view that inflation is not likely to be a major overall issue in 2004. Although this bodes well for policy, it is not a positive for corporate pricing power.
allow change connecting data environment favorable gives improving labor market months picture rapidly sea seen start
The two months of favorable data allow us to start connecting the dots. It gives us a picture of a rapidly improving labor market. I think we can categorically say we have seen a sea change in labor market environment at this time.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.
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When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,
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We've seen a sea change in the way the financial markets and economy watchers are looking at the world, ... For many months, people thought the economy was so strong and robust, they could ignore these head winds.
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Wages have stagnated over the past couple of years; employers have no incentive to change wages. Eventually we will see incentive packages moving more closely in line with growth in the economy, but it's not going to happen soon.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
alan best bit certainly continue describe financial great greenspan inflation markets prove realize report worried worries
The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.