Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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Corporate America is on the mend. The only downside of stronger productivity growth is that it means hiring is lagging. As far as downsides go, this is roughly the equivalent of eating your broccoli. It may be tough to stomach at first, but it makes you stronger and healthier in the long run.
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It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
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Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.
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I truly believe that they would like to stop at 5 percent, but if we get a really strong number (for economic growth) in the first quarter it may be hard to do that.
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It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
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They rely on a lot of other things. When you look at economy in its totality, virtually everything is stronger than the employment data.
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Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
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Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.
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The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.
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I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
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In the past, that (increase in work week) has pointed to fact we'll see strong job growth in next few months.
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In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
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I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today.
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The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.