Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
fed good interest nearly raising run
We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
concern employment fed greenspan january markets spell stance
There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
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The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.
difficult fed follows leave meet rates strength unchanged
If this kind of strength follows through to other reports, it will become very difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged when they meet on Aug. 22nd,
added disconnect faith growing jobs reflects
I don't have any faith that 32,000 jobs added reflects what's going on. The growing disconnect between the surveys is too much to dismiss.
affordable parts relative
Ocala is much more affordable relative to other parts of the state.
congress impact pension reform wall
If we had an anti-business Congress that went after pension reform aggressively, it could have a devastating impact on Wall Street.
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Lots of the activity that had been taking place in New Orleans is now taking place in Houston or Dallas or Atlanta, Birmingham or Baton Rouge,
bring changes force line pension system work
Many of these changes are long overdue and will bring the pension system in line with today's work force.
continue fed inflation interest paid prices raise running
The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
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The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
economy either growth happening job labor losing means momentum side stronger touch
It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
belief bleed core energy eventually people prices quarter seen
People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.