Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
almost chance close denying economy growing hike less moved rate
The chance of a rate hike is almost nonexistent. They've never moved this close to the election, and I don't think there's any need to. There's really no denying the economy is growing less than it did in the mid-'99 to mid-2000 period.
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The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy.
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The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point.
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The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.
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The unemployment rate is likely to hang around 4.5 percent and finish the year somewhere near 4 percent. That would mean that North Carolina would be back in the familiar position of having an unemployment rate below that of the nation.
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The trucking industry is very competitive, so driving up the costs of hiring drivers has not really translated that much to price pressure for finished goods.
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The major story in these places is very rapid population growth, with retirees, seasonal residents and tourists coming in,
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The leadership in the economy is going to shift from housing and consumers to businesses. There's nothing unusual about that. It's healthy.
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The jobless recovery is well behind us. The economy right now is not really in a recovery mode, it's in a boom mode. Companies are going to be hiring out of fear if they don't, they lose an opportunity to make more money.
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You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.
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You can't get a strong economy if everybody's against business. It's awfully hard to create jobs if everybody's anti-business.
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Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.