Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
consumers
It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying,
bad coming horrific month news orleans people
I think it's going to be a bad month for retailers. The news was so horrific coming out of New Orleans that it made people not feel like going out to dinner.
expect given weakest weakness
We expect to see weakness in the PPI given the weakness in manufacturing, which is the weakest part of the economy,
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
belief bleed core energy eventually people prices quarter seen
People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.
apartment area buildings built centers country damages extended given good reach shopping tested unusually wet worse
Given that it's going to reach such an extended area and that it will be an unusually wet storm, damages are going to be a lot worse than $1 billion. So many homes, apartment buildings and shopping centers have been built in this part of the country that haven't been tested by a big storm. Now we're going to see just how good this construction has been.
sure
I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely.
caused december forward january might normally occurred orders pulled
That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,
markets rational
Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong.
economy either growth happening job labor losing means momentum side stronger touch
It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
almost crisis disturbing paid prices reading remain solid strong virtually
Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.
employment improvement job market seen skilled slack starting workers
We haven't seen that much improvement in employment of hourly workers because the job market for lower-skill workers still has a lot of slack in it. But if you look at skilled workers, it's a much different picture. We're starting to see some real shortages in some sectors.
good income news personal report
Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation.
august due numbers rest solid spending
I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.