Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
few jobs qualify soft
I think 78,000 is too few jobs to qualify as a soft landing.
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High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.
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So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.
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The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
case clearly decent economic growth half labor likely market second seems
The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.
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The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
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The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
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(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
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The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
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I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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In the end, we can work this out. It is $200 billion in spending for a $12 trillion economy, ... It's just a matter of how we finance it, not whether or not we can afford to do it.
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Hiring in business and professional services will once again lead the way.