Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
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I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today.
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If you wait for the wage increases to show up in the report, they're behind the curve.
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I think 78,000 is too few jobs to qualify as a soft landing.
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The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
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A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.
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Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,
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As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
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That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.
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Corporate America is on the mend. The only downside of stronger productivity growth is that it means hiring is lagging. As far as downsides go, this is roughly the equivalent of eating your broccoli. It may be tough to stomach at first, but it makes you stronger and healthier in the long run.
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Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.
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It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year, ... Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well.
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It's always a question in getting the cost right and delivering the product at the right time.
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It would create an awful mess in Florida, where the labor market is tight by any definition.