Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
baby dunk energy likely move prices raise rates remain slam
As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
continue fed inflation interest paid prices raise running
The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
combined employee growth health inability job prices raise reason selling single
When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
cause doubt fed next point quarter raise rates report strong three
I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
certainly five number prevents raise stop
Certainly they would like to stop at five (percent), and I don't think this number prevents them from doing that, but it is something that should raise some doubts.
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
again bursting companies economy economy-and-economics finally growing market moved overall past stock tech year
Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.