Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
account bad decisions far growth income influence news percent personal recent salary since spending tend wage wages weakness
The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.
bit difficulty economy expecting explain fact folks generating helps mild momentum negative positive recession short three weaker
It confirms that this recession in 2001 was not particularly mild or as short as some folks had thought, ... We were expecting at least two negative quarters, and the fact we had three is a little bit of a surprise. That helps explain why we're having so much difficulty generating some positive momentum right now. The economy was weaker than we had thought.
expect given weakest weakness
We expect to see weakness in the PPI given the weakness in manufacturing, which is the weakest part of the economy,
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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
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We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
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Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
anywhere chicago follow near next report weakness
So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.
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Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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All of Florida is doing well. Its economy is outperforming the nation by the largest margin in recent memory. You'd be hard pressed to find a weak area anywhere in the state.
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
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When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
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While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.